Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 2.403750 2.908307 3.476239 4.160375 4.959499 5.860689 6.951046
2025-04-27 1.748934 2.403097 3.221218 4.309009 5.705459 7.424871 9.687253
2025-05-04 1.371583 2.099667 3.094025 4.526880 6.509563 9.122968 12.787961
2025-05-11 1.051233 1.776131 2.847732 4.505187 6.951811 10.368066 15.419756
2025-05-18 0.792226 1.469922 2.548827 4.329607 7.115881 11.210180 17.551362
2025-05-25 0.597719 1.213692 2.265879 4.111072 7.156470 11.842768 19.406807
2025-06-01 0.485221 1.068872 2.130453 4.093730 7.486920 12.917715 21.993881
2025-06-08 0.403971 0.960973 2.035141 4.121037 7.879908 14.111465 24.852376
2025-06-15 0.334412 0.858185 1.927605 4.104052 8.184765 15.177307 27.581412
2025-06-22 0.260429 0.725595 1.735207 3.894261 8.113194 15.593365 29.258382
2025-06-29 0.217209 0.651586 1.646925 3.869776 8.371473 16.589523 31.982256
2025-07-06 0.181593 0.586128 1.563673 3.840272 8.611221 17.565317 34.735718
2025-07-13 0.166287 0.571296 1.594822 4.063289 9.384418 19.600092 39.568120
2025-07-20 0.147971 0.543041 1.589348 4.205707 10.011306 21.417397 44.148415
2025-07-27 0.135324 0.527918 1.613287 4.417837 10.805150 23.615510 49.588151
2025-08-03 0.114244 0.479566 1.542312 4.396185 11.095621 24.855724 53.310808
2025-08-10 0.091329 0.416543 1.418030 4.224193 11.033300 25.384521 55.701119
2025-08-17 0.071514 0.356176 1.286531 4.010286 10.846583 25.636869 57.558070
2025-08-24 0.060609 0.325224 1.234150 3.993300 11.112417 26.844876 61.391930
2025-08-31 0.052399 0.301901 1.200022 4.020014 11.484359 28.304411 65.828348
2025-09-07 0.044522 0.276483 1.153192 4.003391 11.747161 29.545624 69.891795
2025-09-14 0.034697 0.236696 1.047568 3.798123 11.510878 29.664623 71.609584
2025-09-21 0.029346 0.216410 1.005195 3.774167 11.737170 30.837383 75.640470